Everybody keeps asking me when rates are coming down. Wrong question. The question is when they're going up — because Tiff Macklem just told you, and nobody's listening.
The warning shot
September 21st, Halifax: the Governor says he's prepared to raise rates not once — more than once — if inflation doesn't behave. His words: move too slow and you end up raising faster and higher than if you'd moved early.
That's not central bank small talk. That's a warning shot.
The setup
Inflation stuck at 3% for three straight months. Gas up 23% from last year. Bond yields have been climbing, which is why fixed rates are already moving up.
Two dates left this year: October 28th and December 9th. Overnight index swaps priced roughly a 76% chance, so markets lean toward an October hike.
What to do
If you're sitting on a variable rate waiting for cuts — the cuts are over. Done. And if you're a buyer waiting for cheaper money to ride in and save you… stop waiting.
The people who win buy a house they can afford at today's rates. Because tomorrow it might cost more.
The cuts are over. Done.
Questions this raises
Will the Bank of Canada raise interest rates again?
Governor Tiff Macklem said on September 21 in Halifax that he's prepared to raise rates more than once if inflation doesn't cooperate. Overnight index swaps priced roughly a 76% chance, so markets lean toward an October hike, per Morningstar in September 2026.
Should I wait for lower mortgage rates to buy in Paris, Ontario?
Ryan's take: buy a house you can afford at today's rates. Waiting for cheaper money to ride in and save you has been the losing trade — fixed rates are already climbing as bond yields move.
Sources: Bank of Canada Governor remarks, Halifax, September 21, 2026; Statistics Canada, August 2026; Morningstar, September 2026. Analysis by Ryan Campbell, Benson Crew Real Estate Team.
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